Wednesday

Severe Weather

No severe weather is expected for Wednesday.  A positive tilt trough will move through the Four Corners region with the bulk of upper-level forcing hanging back across Arizona and Colorado.  A northeast to southwest oriented cold front will pass through the Upper-Mississippi Valley and Central Plains by this evening with a chance of light precipitation along the front.  No significant impacts are expected.

Winter Weather

Winter weather will be confined to the central Rockies, where 4-6 inches of snow will be possible across Colorado.

Excessive Rainfall

No excessive rainfall is anticipated.

Thursday

Severe Weather

A threat for severe weather will exist across central/northeast Texas on Thursday, as well as further east along an advancing cold front stretching from Arkansas into the Ohio River Valley.  Best threat for organized severe storms will remain over Texas.  As vorticity, associated with the closed low over New Mexico, pivots into the Southern High Plains, upper-level forcing will trigger daytime storm activity in an environment of moderate instability and deep moisture.  Bulk shear will be more than sufficient for supercell thunderstorms, along with good low and mid level lapse rates.  Low-level winds may be weak enough to inhibit a greater tornado threat.  Therefore, primary threats will likely be large hail and damaging winds.    

Winter Weather

Significant winter weather is not anticipated for Thursday.

Excessive Rainfall

A slight risk for excessive rainfall will exist over the Arklatex region as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday