Severe Weather

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. A band of thunderstorms over north-central WI this morning will continue to propagate east-northeastward into the afternoon. There will be a possibility of isolated hail and damaging winds with these storms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated to develop this afternoon within the vicinity of a cold front positioned from WI southwestward into OK. Scattered storms are also expected across the eastern portions of the TX panhandle and northwest TX. The main threat will be damaging winds, but some isolated hail may also be possible. A broad area of convection is expected to evolve during the late afternoon/early evening across southern KS, OK, and northwest TX and will persist overnight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast across central and northern MN this afternoon with the possibility of producing large hail. Additional scattered thunderstorms will occur across northern NY and northern New England this afternoon due to a weak cold front settling into the area. 

Tropical Weather

Hurricane Earl is approximately 340 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC and is moving toward the north-northwest at 18 mph. Earl is a category four hurricane and gradual weakening is expected to start later today, but Earl is expected to still be a major hurricane when it passes near the Outer Banks tonight. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the coast of NC and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the southern coast of NC, VA, DE, NJ, and Long Island, NY. Tropical Storm Fiona is located approximately 590 miles south of Bermuda and is moving toward the northwest at 17 mph. Fiona is not expected to strengthen during the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Gaston is moving slowly over the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to strengthen gradually during the next 48 hours. 

Excessive Rainfall

There is a slight risk of flash flooding from the upper MS valley into the lower MO valley and the Outer Banks of NC. The Outer Banks of NC will most likely receive the heaviest rainfall due to Hurricane Earl with the potential for isolated totals up to 6 inches. 

Friday

There are no severe thunderstorm areas forecast, but strong thunderstorms will occur. Widely scattered storms are anticipated from the lower Great Lakes southwestward through the western Gulf coast States during the afternoon. Additional scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the southern Rockies as well as the northern Intermountain region during the afternoon and evening. 

Excessive Rainfall

There is a slight risk of flash flooding across New England.