Severe Weather

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the northern Plains, the Mid Atlantic States, and southern AZ. A few areas of convection are located across the Dakotas and northern NE this morning with the possibility of new thunderstorm development in the vicinity of these areas. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon across eastern MT/western Dakotas and will most likely evolve into a broad area of convection by the evening that will propagate southeastward across SD. These afternoon thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated to form along and ahead of a cold front moving through southern New England and the Mid Atlantic States during the mid to late afternoon. Finally, southern AZ will experience thunderstorms by the evening with the possibility of damaging winds.

Excessive Rainfall

There is a slight risk of flash flooding across southeastern SD, extreme northeast NE, and northwest IA.

Friday

Severe Weather

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the mid-MO valley and mid to upper MS valley. Early morning convection will propagate southeastward from the eastern Dakotas and southwest MN into central and northeastern IA by the afternoon. New thunderstorm development will most likely occur along a cold front advancing southward into the mid-MO valley during the afternoon, with the most severe storms in eastern NE. Damaging winds will be the primary threat throughout the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional thunderstorms are expected during the late morning and afternoon from eastern WY west-northwestward into southern MT and northern ID.

Excessive Rainfall

There is a slight risk of flash flooding across northeast IA and southeast MN.