Future Radar

The McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Using Semi-Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) provides a new short-term forecast every five minutes using a series of quality-controlled radar mosaics from WDT’s advanced radar processing system.  This radar forecast provides accurate predictions of storm coverage and intensity out to four hours into future, providing critical information for decision makers regarding locations to be impacted by potentially hazardous weather.  Additionally, short-term predictions of precipitation accumulation are derived for various time periods.  MAPLE is the engine behind many of WDT’s extensive alerting capabilities.  When coupled with a lightning detection network, lightning nowcasts including estimated time of arrival (ETA) and departure (ETD) can be provided.  WDT’s Flash Flood Prediction Algorithm uses MAPLE forecasts to alert emergency manager’s of imminent flooding hazards for individual drainage basins. 

Future Radar Characteristics:

• Rapid update assures most up-to-date forecasts.  Forecasts are updated every 5 minutes with new radar information.
• High-resolution (1-km nationwide) provides extreme precision. 
• Uses nationwide radar mosaics to cover large regions with a single forecast.
• Precipitation forecasts and display are partitioned into rains, snow, and mixed areas using rapidly updated WRF forecasts from WDT’s operational NWP system combined with a proprietary conditional precipitation type algorithm.  The algorithm provides better than 96% accuracy for rain vs. snow.
• Provides numerous accumulation periods for precipitation